[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Feb 08 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50208
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Feb 2005, 1218UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Feb 2005 until 10 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Past 24 hours solar activity was concentrated in active region
NOAA 0733 (no Catania number) situated in the East (~S05E85). Around
noon 7/2 it produced a long-duration flare, the accompanied CME to the
east had a speed of 500 km/s. The largest flare it produced was a C3.7
flare and erupted at 22.44 UT. We keep an eye on this active region as
it rotates on the disk. Although very active during previous rotation
and listed as beta-gamma, active region NOAA 0732 (Catania 19/20) is
very quiet. However we think C-flares are possible from this region.
Geomagnetic conditions are active to unsettled at present. Earlier than
expected we entered the high speed wind stream of the northern coronal
hole. This is probably due to its high speed: the solar wind was pushed
up to a speed of 700-750 km/s. Since it is a large coronal hole, we
expect the disturbances to last for another 24 hours. Minor storm
intervals remain possible for the next 24 hours.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 103
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 035

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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