[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Feb 07 1321 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50207
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Feb 2005, 1250UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 Feb 2005 until 09 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 025

COMMENT: Last 24 hours solar activity was restricted to B class flares
and one C1.9 flare. During the second half of 6/2 most activity came
from the northeast returning regions (Catania 19,20, NOAA 0732), but
only B flares were produced. Today most activity came from the southeast
near the equator (Catania 17, NOAA 0730) which produced a C1.9 flare.
Solar activity is expected to continue at least at C-flare level, with a
good chance for an M-class event. The earth left the influence zone from
the small coronal hole now situated in the southwest. Its geomagnetic
influence was restricted to a short active interval. Also this morning a
signature of a shock is seen in the solar wind data (ACE, CELIAS) at
1UT, but again, no geomagnetic disturbances were measured. It could be a
glancing blow related to the prominence eruption of Feb 3rd. For next
days we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions, with an active to minor
storm interval due to the northern coronal hole, now situated just west
of the central meridian. We expect to feel its influence during on
Wednesday 9/2.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 6 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 059
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 097
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 012

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE
END

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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