[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Multiple
C-class flares occurred from a source on the east limb near N14, the
largest was a C7 x-ray event that occurred at 04/2357Z.  This is
likely the return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178).  LASCO imagery
depicts two distinct CME eruptions from the solar east limb which do
not appear to be Earth directed.  No new regions were numbered
today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels throughout the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (6
Feb).  Predominantly active conditions with periods of minor
storming are possible on 7-8 February due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    40/45/50
Class X    05/10/10
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 095
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb  105/115/125
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  008/010-015/025-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/45/35
Minor storm           05/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/15/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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