[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity continued low. Region 734 (S05E04)
produced a C1 x-ray flare at 0408UTC. Region 733 (S09W13) generated
a C1 x-ray flare with Type II at 1158UTC. Although quiet, Region 735
(S08E20) grew in white light, now measuring over 400 millionths. The
remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at GOES was high again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A slow, faint CME was seen by
LASCO midway through 13 February, associated with a flare from
Region 733. Should that CME affect the magnetosphere, it is not
anticipated to be significant, late in the interval.

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 118
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  120/120/115
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  005/008-005/010-005/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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