[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels.  Newly numbered
Region 733 (S09E78) produced several low level C-class flares
during the period.  There is a fair sized penumbral spot that has
just begun to rotate onto the visible disk.  Due to the region's
proximity to the limb further analysis is pending.  Region 732
(N09E57) was limited to the  production of multiple B-class flares
over the period.  Analysis indicates that there is a gamma magnetic
structure in both polarities of this active region.  No other
regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Regions 732 and 733 are both capable of producing
further C-class flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  The ACE
spacecraft indicated that the onset of a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream began around mid-day. Minor storm conditions
have persisted since 07/1430Z at middle and high latitudes.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor
storm conditions possible through 8 February. Unsettled levels with
isolated active periods should dominate 9 and 10 February as the
geoeffective high speed coronal stream wanes.

III.  Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 103
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  012/015-010/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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