[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  A C1.0 flare occurred
from Region 734 (S04E44) at 11/1000Z.  LASCO imagery showed a CME
off the SE limb at 11/0254Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind speed at
ACE showed a decline from approximately 680 km/s to 620 km/s during
the reporting period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high again today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 - 14 February.  Today's CME
is not expected to be geoeffective.

III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 114
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  008/010-008/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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HC-DX Propagation Channel: 
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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