[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels today.  Region
732 (N09E70, believed to be old Region 720) was numbered today and
was the source for the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare
that occurred at 06/0939Z.  Analysis of the magnetic field structure
indicates a fair amount of complexity over a large are of plage
while the sunspot area coverage is currently meager.  New Region 731
(S02E27) was also numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 732 could continue the production of C-class
flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The active
conditions occurred between 06/0600 and 0900Z due to the associated
solar sector boundary crossing that was seen at the ACE spacecraft
at approximately 06/0500Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storming for 7 February due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.  Predominantly unsettled conditions are
expected on 7-8 February as the coronal hole wanes.

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 097
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  015/020-012/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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