[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare at 1948 UTC
from Region 734 (S04W10). Additional B-class flares were observed
during the day, mostly from Region 735 (S08E06).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux attained high levels during the past 24
hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for tomorrow (February 16). Mostly
unsettled conditions are expected on February 17 and unsettled to
slightly active conditions are expected on February 18. The increase
is anticipated in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 122
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  120/115/115
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  005/008-010/012-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor storm           05/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel: 
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



--
No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.300 / Virus Database: 265.8.8 - Release Date: 2/14/2005

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation