:Issued: 2005 Feb 17 1245 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50217
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Feb 2005, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Feb 2005 until 19 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 012
COMMENT: NOAA AR 734 produced a C4.9 flare just before midnight (peak
23h38) yesterday evening (Feb 16). Meanwhile NOAA AR 735 got the
beta-gamma-delta label and keeps on increasing in size and number of
spots. Chances for an M-class flare are therefore slightly increasing.
For the solar wind we expected a transition to a moderate fast wind
stream, as a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is moving into
geoeffective position.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX : 081
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 113
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 033
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 020
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
NOTE
NONE
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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