:Issued: 2005 Feb 21 1248 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50221
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Feb 2005, 1233UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Feb 2005 until 23 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Feb 2005 10CM FLUX: 085 / AP: 010
COMMENT: All active regions on the Sun are stable and did not produce
any significant activity. Regions 26 (NOAA0735) and 33 (NOAA0736) may
still produce C flares in the next 2 days, until they disappear at the
West limb. No returning active region is expected at the East limb. So,
the solar activity may then decrease to very low levels. The solar wind
has stabilized at a speed of 420km/s, with a weak IMF. The Bz component
turned negative for a few hours (20/2 20:00UT to 21/2 09:00UT), which
produced unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions during that period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain largely quiet to unsettled
for the next two days. On day 3 (Feb. 23), a new high-speed stream may
start to influence the Earth magnetosphere.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX : 039
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 096
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 027
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 016
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA
NOTE
NONE
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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