[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Feb 13 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50213
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Feb 2005, 1219UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 13 Feb 2005 until 15 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 004

COMMENT: Over the past two days the solar wind has slowed down
continuously down to a current speed of about 400 km/s. Also the
magnitude of magnetic field turned low (+/-2nT). We thus conclude the
earth has left the influence zone from the previous coronal hole. We
expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hour. A new northern
coronal hole is visible in the eastern hemisphere. It could give rise to
active to unsettled geomagnetic conditions from 15 Feb. onwards. Solar
activity was very low past 24 hour. This morning a C2.7 flare peaking at
10:40 UT was seen in GOES data. SXI movies determined its position in
active region 0733. We cannot say yet if there was a CME related.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 136
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 116
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 007

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

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