[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Feb 06 1141 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50206
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Feb 2005, 1049UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Feb 2005 until 08 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 012

COMMENT: The returning sunspot group Catania 05/NOAA 0720 has now
rotated into view. Since yesterday's forecast, it only produced a C1.2
flare, but we expect higher activity levels over the next few days. On
the disk itself, a new sunspot group has formed (Catania 18), but this
is far not very active. Another sunspot group is lying in wait behind
the southeast limb (possibly the return of Catania 11/NOAA 0725), and
produced a C1.3 flare a short while ago. Solar activity is expected to
continue at least a C-flare level, with a good chance for an M-class
event.

The solar wind speed is increasing, probably due to the small equatorial
coronal hole in the western hemisphere. This influence is expected to
last for about a day. Since the IMF orientation is varying, we may get
short periods of active conditions. Another, much larger coronal hole in
the northern hemisphere is now at central meridian. This recurrent
coronal hole may lead to minor storm conditions from Feb 09 onwards.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 022
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 095
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 002

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE
END

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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