[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Feb 03 1224 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50203
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Feb 2005, 1155UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Feb 2005 until 05 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 091 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Solar activity has remained very low, but currently a new
active region is appearing at the southeast limb. It is not yet visible
on the disk, but EIT and SXI images clearly demonstrate its flaring
activity. So far, this resulted only in B-class flares, but we expect it
may generate C-class events later today. The large sunspot group Catania
05/NOAA 0720 is due to return on Saturday Feb 05, but so far there are
no indications from EIT that it is still active.

Geomagnetic conditions reached up to active levels during the past 24
hours, due to periods of weak southwards orientation of the IMF. The
solar wind speed remained approximately constant at 550km/s. We expect
further periods of active conditions. Later today, we may see a weak
ICME from the prominence that erupted on Feb 01.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 2 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 082
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 009

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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