[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Feb 04 1226 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50204
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Feb 2005, 1206UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Feb 2005 until 06 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 002
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 007

COMMENT: Flaring activity from the sun has still remained very low
during the past 24 hours. The new region in the southeast, now numbered
Catania sunspot group 17 (no NOAA number yet) is still flaring, but only
at the B-level. In EIT images we can now see the loop system of the
returning sunspot group Catania 05/NOAA 0720. These images indicate there
is still activity going on there, but so far it doesn't appear to be
major.

A prominence erupted from the northern solar hemisphere at about 04:00UT
on Feb 03. No strong corresponding CME was observed in LASCO, and since
the prominence was also fairly far to the north, we expect no geomagnetic
effect from that eruption. The solar wind speed is still near 500 km/s
and slowly declining. There has been so far no trace of an ICME
corresponding to the filament eruption of Feb 01. Geomagnetic conditions
are quiet and are expected to remain so for the next 48 hours, after
which we may see active to minor storm conditions due to a small
equatorial coronal hole that is currently just west of the central
meridian.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 014
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 083
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 010

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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