[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Feb 02 1310 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50202
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Feb 2005, 1236UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Feb 2005 until 04 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 083 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 085 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 089 / AP: 018

COMMENT: Solar activity has remained low over the past 24 hours. The
solar X-ray flux has remained below B-level all the time. Solar
conditions are expected to remain quiet for the next 48 hours. After
that, we expect the return of Catania sunspot group 05 (NOAA 0720).
Geomagnetic conditions are quiet also. The solar wind speed is decreasing
and the IMF is near zero.

A large CME was detected in LASCO images at 11:06 UT on Feb 01. It was
mostly eastwards directed and determined to be backsided. However, just
before this time, a coronal dimming was clearly visible in EIT images,
while near the same time the low energy proton fluxes (as measured by
ACE/EPAM) started to rise. This may indicate that a weak frontsided CME
occurred at the same time, which may cause some geomagnetic perturbations
late tomorrow.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 1 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 030
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 084
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 008

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eReflector: 
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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