[Propagation] SIDC Belgium Daily Solar & Geo Report

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

:Issued: 2005 Feb 14 1244 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50214
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Feb 2005, 1239UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Feb 2005 until 16 Feb 2005)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 117 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Feb 2005  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 024

COMMENT: A partial halo CME was associated with the C2.7 flare
yesterday noon (10h51 UT, 13 Feb) from NOAA AR 733 (Catania Sunspot
group 24). The halo CME was first observed by CACTus
(http://sidc.oma.be/cactus) at 11h30 UT as four separated minor CMEs.
The radial speed of the main component was 467 km/s. IPS reported that
this flare was also associated to a Type II sweep with a speed of 813
km/s as per Learmonth estimation. The possible arrival of this CME -and
thus geomagnetic disturbances- is not expected before Wednesday.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Feb 2005
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 082
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 116
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 004

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA 
NOTE
NONE

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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HC-DX Propagation Channel: 
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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