Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. An M3
x-ray flare occurred at 19/1101Z from just beyond the solar west
limb. The source of this flare appears to be from the vicinity of
Region 732 (N08 L=188) which rotated out of view early yesterday.
Region 735 (S09W45) underwent a slight decay in overall sunspot
coverage today while the southern most penumbral mass had a
noticeable increase in area. Magnetic analysis indicates Region 735
has the characteristics of a beta-gamma class group. The remaining
active regions were quiescent today. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 735 has the potential of producing isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels today. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is the most likely source
for the active conditions. The solar wind speeds have ranged from
550 km/s down to 450 km/s throughout the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 099
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 014/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 008/010-005/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
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