Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 734 (S05W34) produced a
C4.9 flare at 2338UTC with an associated halo CME traveling at a
velocity of approximately 900 km/s. Region 735 (S07W06) is the
largest group on the disk but was stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M class flare from Region 735.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 18 February due to a coronal
hole. Activity should remain at unsettled to active levels for 19
February due to possible effects from today's CME. Conditions
should decrease to unsettled on 20 February.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 111
Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 17 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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