Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 735
(S09W71) was limited to minor B-class flares today. This region
underwent little change and retains the beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 736 (N13W63) showed an increase in penumbral
coverage over the past 24 hours and produced several minor B-class
flares. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Both Region 735 and 736 have the potential
of producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions with the influence of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream beginning late on 23
February.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 095
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 095/090/085
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 007/010-007/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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