Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
735 (S09W85) underwent little noticeable change during the period
and has begun to exit the solar western limb. Region 736 (N13W77)
appears to have had a growth in sunspot area today as it also begins
to exit the visible disk. B-class flare activity was observed from
both of these regions today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels throughout the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 23 February. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream should become geoeffective
on 24 February. Active conditions are possible on 24 and 25
February due to the coronal hole influences.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 092
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 090/085/085
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 004/012-008/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/30
Minor storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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