Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 732 (N15W90) and 735
(S09W32) were responsible for several low level C-class flares.
Region 732 produced the largest C-flare; a C2.3 at 17/2344Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 735 is still capable of producing C-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Activity
was due to the effects of a high speed stream from a geoeffective
coronal hole. Solar wind speed at ACE showed an increase to
approximately 600 km/s by 18/1600Z and then decreased slightly to
550 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm levels on 19 February due to the arrival of the CME
observed on LASCO imagery on 17 February. Expect quiet to active
conditions on 20 February and quiet to unsettled conditions on 21
February.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 104
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 017/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/030-012/015-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 30/15/10
Major-severe storm 15/10/01
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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