Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 736 (N13W92) produced a
C2.6 flare at 23/0934Z as it rotated around the west limb. New
Regions 737 (S07W31) and 738 (S10E10) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at ACE increased
from approximately 365 km/s to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz remained
positive through the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 24 February. On 25 February,
expect quiet to active conditions as a recurrent high speed stream
becomes geoeffective. On 26 February, expect unsettled to active
conditions with minor storm periods possible at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 085
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 008/012-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/15
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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