[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event of the
period was a C3.7 flare from Region 733 (S08E67) at 07/2244Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.  The
heightened activity was due to the effects of a high speed coronal
hole stream.  Solar wind speed at ACE has been elevated at
approximately 700 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible due to the continued effects of a high speed coronal hole
stream throughout the period.

III.  Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 108
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb  110/115/115
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  019/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  018/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  012/020-010/012-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
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http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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