[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2005

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C1.7 flare occurred from
Region 734 (S04E57) at 10/0010Z.  New Region 735 (S08E74) was
numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Solar wind speed at ACE
showed a decline from approximately 750 km/s to 650 km/s during the
reporting period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 11 February.  Expect quiet to
unsettled conditions on 12 and 13 February as the coronal hole
stream moves out of geoeffective position.

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 114
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 100

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  014/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  010/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  008/012-008/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Contesting Propagation eReflector: 
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HC-DX Propagation Channel: 
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm



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