Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A Region on the East limb
at S16 produced a B5.4 flare at 21/1656 UTC. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated
levels were due to the lingering presence of a high speed coronal
hole stream. At approximately 21/0000 UTC, solar wind speed
increased to an estimated 640 km/s and has gradually declined to 590
km/s as of the end of the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated
active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 101
Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 21 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 011/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 008/015-004/010-004/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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