Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C4.9 flare was observed at
19/0512 UTC from Region 700, located at N04 on the West limb.
Region 700 was responsible for several lesser C-flares during the
reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 330 km/s to 400 km/s during the
reporting period. Total magnetic field increased to approximately
18 nT, however, Bz has remained predominantly positive. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions on
20 and 21 November due to the effects from a geoeffective coronal
hole stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 November.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 102
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/012-010/015-004/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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