:Issued: 2004 Nov 21 1335 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41121
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Nov 2004, 1322UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Nov 2004 until 23 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is currently under the influence of the fast
solar wind from the northern hemisphere coronal hole. The wind speed increased
in three steps to slightly more than 600km/s. The north-south component of the
IMF is very variable, with short period of southward orientation. This has led
to a active geomagnetic conditions during the past 24 hours. We expect these
conditions to continue for the next 24 hours, after which the coronal hole
influence will come to an end. Solar conditions have remained quiet and are
expected to remain so. None of the sunspot groups currently visible seems
capable to generate significant flaring activity.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 099
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 028
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 021
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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