:Issued: 2004 Nov 18 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41118
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Nov 2004, 1222UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Nov 2004 until 20 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 017
COMMENT: Solar activity has continued at low levels, with very low flaring
activity at B-level. Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA 0700) is currently rotating
over the west limb, leaving Catania 69 (NOAA 0702) as the biggest group on disk.
Like all other sunspot groups currently visble, this shows very little prospect
for significant flares. At the east limb, the new sunspot group Catania 70 is
probably the return of Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA 0691), a previously
X-flaring region. So far, however, this region appears not very active either.
We this expect quiet solar conditions.
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet as well, with the solar wind speed
decreasing below 400km/s and a nearly neutral nourth-south component of the IMF.
Some goemagnetic perturbations may be expected tomorrow due to the arrival of
fast solar wind stream from the coronal hole currently visible in the north-west
solar quadrant. We therefore expect quiet conditions today, active conditions
tomorrow.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 070
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 105
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 009
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 007
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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