:Issued: 2004 Nov 30 1311 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41130
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Nov 2004, 1257UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 30 Nov 2004 until 02 Dec 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Dec 2004 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 012
COMMENT: On the Sun, only a few C flares are expected from the active regions
on the disk. SOHO/EIT images show that a returning active region (NOAA700) is
about to cross the NE limb. This region seems to be mildly active and may
contribute to an increase of the solar activity, starting tomorrow.
The solar wind speed has increased further and now approaches 700km/s, still
with Bz fluctuations down to -7nT. This fast wind has produced mostly unsettled
geomagnetic conditions, with active or minor storm spells (at high latitude) for
a few hours around 00:00UT. The influence of this high-speed stream will start
declining tomorrow, but may still produce unsettled to active conditions until
Dec.2. The geomagnetic field should then become quieter again.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 29 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 050
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 111
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 029
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 021
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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