:Issued: 2004 Nov 17 1239 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41117
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Nov 2004, 1214UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Nov 2004 until 19 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 023
COMMENT: Both solar and geomagnetic conditions have remained quiet in the past
24 hours. Flaring activity in Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA 0700) has stopped
completely, although there are no obvious signs of decay in the magnetic
structure. There is still a fair chance for C-class flares from this region
therefore. The remnant of returning sunspot group Catania 49 (NOAA 0687) has now
rotated fully on the disk. This previously M-flaring region has decayed to an
inactive loop system without spots. LASCO and EIT images show a clear CME
leaving the sun early yesterday (Nov 16). This CME originated from just behind
the northeast limb, so it may originate from the returning sunspot group Catania
52 (NOAA 0691), which is due to return tomorrow.
ACE measumerments indicate that the IMF has been very variable over the past 24
hours, with many short periods of southwards orientation (going down to almost
-10nT). Geomagnetic conditions have however not been significantly perturbed by
this. We expect quiet conditions to continue for the next 48 hours, but
thereafter the influence of the recurrent northern coronal hole may lead to
active conditions.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 064
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 108
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 009
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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