:Issued: 2004 Nov 13 1243 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41113
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Nov 2004, 1159UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 13 Nov 2004 until 15 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 005
COMMENT: The solar activity remains very low, with only a few B flares and an
X-ray background at the B1 level. Active regions 64 (NOAA699) and 65 (NOAA700)
are growing but they are expected to produce only occasional C flares. The solar
wind speed has now decreased below 500km/s, with a small Bz magnetic component.
The geomagnetic field is thus expect to remain quiet to unsettled later today
and probably for the next two days. The >10Mev proton flux is now hovering at
the the event threshold of 10pfu. It should slowly decline further in the second
part of the day.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 065
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 097
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 043
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 031
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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