The Kp index peaked at a 9 for approximately 9 hours which is at severe
geomagnetic storming levels! The current storm is now subsiding
but with 2-3 more Earth facing coronal mass ejections currently enroute we can
expect more major geomagnetic storming
later this week.
----- Original Message -----
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF
To: Thomas Giella KN4LF
Sent: Sunday, November 07, 2004 7:12 PM
Subject: Geomagnetic Storming Commences
It looks like the major to severe geomagnetic storming that I forecasted began
at approximately 1800 UTC today. It was preceeded at approximately 1600 UTC by
another huge X1 class solar flare and day side HF blackout, plus the beginning
of elevated energetic proton event >10 Mev (10+o).
Unfortunately we will be experiencing prolonged episodes of geomagnetic
storming during the upcoming week. Just in time to ruin the testing of my new
160-10 meter inverted L project.
----- Original Message -----
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF
To: Thomas Giella KN4LF
Sent: Saturday, November 06, 2004 10:05 PM
Subject: Sever/Major Geomagnetic Storming To Occur
In the past four days we have seen 3-4 Earth directed full halo coronal mass
ejections occur in association with a series of M and X class solar flares.
I expect to see severe geomagnetic storming at high latitudes and major
geomagnetic storming at mid latitudes commence in 6-12 hours. High and mid
latitude night time propagation paths on the MF AM broadcast band, 160, 120, 90
and 80/75 meters will be most impacted. Also high and mid latitude propagation
paths at day time on 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters will be most impacted.
:Issued: 2004 Nov 08 1300 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41108
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Nov 2004, 1243UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Nov 2004 until 10 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 191
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 052
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 084
COMMENT: A severe geomagnetic storm (Kp=8-9) is in progress since 07/11 21:00
UT. This major event was triggered by a shock in the solar wind recorded by the
ACE spacecraft at 07/11 17:59UT, associated with a strong negative Bz (down to
-50nT). With two smaller shocks recorded around 7/11 02:22 and 10:22UT, this
major disturbance is associated with the multiple halo CMEs launched in active
region 61 (NOAA696) on Nov. 4 and 5. Currently, the solar wind speed is stable
at 700km/s, and the Bz component is now close to 0. As a consequence, the
geomagnetic activity recorded at most stations is decreasing: the Kp values
range from 4 to 6. This probably marks the end of this storm episode. However,
new disturbances associated with the Nov.6 M9 flare and Nov.7 X2. flare will
reach the Earth late on Nov. 8 or early Nov. 9, and late on Nov. 9 or on Nov.
10, respectively. As all current events are produced by the same region, they
most likely share the same magnetic polarity. Therefore, based on today's storm
parameters, upcoming events are expected to carry a southward-oriented IMF and
thus to be strongly geoeffective. We thus predict minor to severe storm
conditions for the next 2 days, separated by active conditions due to the
influence of a trans-equatorial coronal hole. A >10MeV proton event associated
with the passing interplanetary shocks started on Nov.7 at 19:00UT and reached a
peak value of 800pfu at 23:25UT. The >10MeV proton flux is now declining but
still above event threshold. This proton event is expected to end early on
Nov.9.
Active region 61 (NOAA0696) is sligthly decaying but keeps its beta-gamma-delta
configuration. It is still extremely active and is expected to produce more M
flares, with still a chance of an X flare, and to trigger geoeffective CMEs in
the next 3 or 4 days, with possible impacts in the Earth environment during the
rest of this week.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 093
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 130
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 079
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 045
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
07 1542 1606 1615 N09W17 X2.0 4600 II/1,IV/1 61 0696
halo CME (based on SXI imagery)
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
---
Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.788 / Virus Database: 533 - Release Date: 11/2/2004
_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
|