After a brief respite strong (Kp-7) to moderate (Kp-6) geomagnetic storming
began at approximately 0000 UTC today. The
latest coronal mass ejection shock wave arrived at approximately 0900 UTC,
courtesy of the X2 class solar flare that occurred
on November 7, 2004. Severe Kp-8 to extreme Kp-9 geomagnetic storming is
possible. If and when the mid latitude K index reaches 9
we will want to watch for visible aurora as far south as 28 deg. N/S Latitude.
We also continue to see polar cap absorption of high latitude propagation path
signals due to the ongoing elevated energetic proton event >10 Mev (10+o) that
began on November 7, 2004.
We can also expect renewed geomagnetic storming on November 11, 2004 due to the
arrival of a full halo coronal mass ejection, courtesy of a long duration C3
solar flare that occurred on November 8, 2004. This CME may be the least in a
series.
In a few days the face of the Sun will become virtually spotless again and we
can look forward to a return of normal space weather, geomagnetic and radio
wave propagation conditions, albeit with the continuation of occasional Earth
facing coronal hole induced minor geomagnetic storming. Unfortunately with
fewer sunspots the daily solar flux level will fall back towards the 80's again
with lower MUF's.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
:Issued: 2004 Nov 09 1317 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41109
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Nov 2004, 1252UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Nov 2004 until 11 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 103
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 117
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 073
COMMENT: A shock was detected in both Celias/SOHO and ACE around 09:00UT. The
shock is possibly the arrival of the halo CME accompanying the X2.0 flare. We
expect a severe geomagnetic storm. Late November 10, early November 11, we
expect again large disturbances of the geomagnetic field as consequence of the
full halo CME of November 8 coming out of the occulting disk of C3 at 05:42UT.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 8 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 082
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 124
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 152
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 171
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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