:Issued: 2004 Nov 06 1221 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41106
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Nov 2004, 1151UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Nov 2004 until 08 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=
50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 025
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 038
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 049
COMMENT: NOAA ARs 0696 and 0693 (Catania sunspot groups 61 and 57
correspondingly) keep the potential of producing big flares. This is especially
true for the NOAA AR 0696, which in addition is now situated very close to the
solar disc center, so any CME erupted from this active region has a very high
chance to reach the Earth. We expect the arrival of several halo CMEs erupted
from the NOAA AR 0696 during the recent days. The photospheric neutral line in
this region is stretched approximately in the East - West direction with the
positive polarity at its northern side. This means that the ejected
interplanetary flux rope(s) will have the leading southward magnetic field. This
is a favorable configuration for producing a significant geomagnetic
disturbance.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 138
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 141
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 008
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 004
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
05 1910 1922 1932 N10E06 M1.2 SF 61 0696
06 0011 0034 0042 N10E08 M9.3 2N 2700 IV/2 61 0696
06 0044 0057 0110 M5.9 II/1 61 0696
06 0140 0157 0208 M3.6 61 0696
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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