:Issued: 2004 Nov 04 1229 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41104
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Nov 2004, 1208UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Nov 2004 until 06 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=
50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 026
COMMENT: The solar activity is dominated by the NOAA AR 0696 (beta-gamma
magnetic configuration), which is growing. It produced three M-flares yesterday.
The NOAA AR 0693 (Catania number 57) has developped into a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration, although it haven't yet generated any significant
flaring activity (only weak C-flares). Taking into account the rapid growth and
M-flaring of NOAA AR 0696 and favorable magnetic configuration of NOAA AR 0693,
we expect an X-flare to occur. Several full or partial halo CMEs have been
produced by the NOAA AR 0696 recently, and more are expected to be produced as
this active region is growing. As it approaches the central meridian, there is a
good chance that any CME coming from this region in the next 3 - 4 days will
arrive to the Earth. So, we expect the geomagnetic activity to reach at least
the minor storm level soon. There is a chance for a proton event as NOAA AR 0691
(Catania sunspot group 52) is at the West limb now.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 136
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 023
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 014
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
03 0323 0335 0357 N08E45 M1.6 1N 1100 IV/2,V/3,III/3,II/3,CTM/2 0696
03 1535 1547 1555 N11E40 M5.0 SN 1700 II/3,IV/2 0696
03 1803 1826 1835 N09E32 M1.0 SF 380 III/1 0696
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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