:Issued: 2004 Nov 03 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41103
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Nov 2004, 1215UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Nov 2004 until 05 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 032
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 019
COMMENT: NOAA ARs 0691 (beta-gamma magnetic configuration) and 0696 (beta
magnetic configuration) are very active recently and may produce M-flares. NOAA
AR 0693, although having the beta-gamma magnetic configuration, was quiet. There
is a chance for a proton event as several sunspot groups are now located at the
West limb. We still expect the arrival of interplanetary disturbances produced
by several halo CMEs detected by CACTUS in LASCO C2 data starting at 08:30 UT
and 16:54 UT on October 30 and at 03:54 UT on November 1. A long period of
disturbed geomagnetic conditions is probable, at least up to the minor storm
level.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 2 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 133
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 006
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
3 0118 0133 0142 N12W71 M3.0 52 0691
SolarSoft Events derived location
3 0322 0334 0430 N08E46 M1.6 0696
SolarSoft Events derived location
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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