:Issued: 2004 Nov 02 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41102
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Nov 2004, 1203UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Nov 2004 until 04 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 031
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 023
COMMENT: On November 3 we expect the arrival of an interplanetary disturbance
produced by two halo CMEs detected by CACTUS in LASCO C2 data starting at 08:30
UT and 16:54 UT on October 30. At least a minor geomagnetic storm is possible.
Another faint halo CME started at 0354 UT on November 1 and is expected to
arrive on November 4. Another disturbed period is thus possible. The halo CME
detected by CACTUS at 04:30 UT on November 1 is originating from behind the West
limb (probably from the former NOAA AR 0684, Catania sunspot group 43). The
proton event yesterday was associated with this CME; now the 10 MeV proton flux
is below the threshold. We do not expect this CME to reach the Earth, although
the arrival of the CME-driven shock is possible (but unlikely).
SOLAR INDICES FOR 1 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 136
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 007
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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