Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. All four spotted regions
on the disk were quiet and stable. Region 708 (N10E56) is showing
slow growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (29 November - 01 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was a
period of minor storm level activity from 0600-0900 UTC due to a
substorm that appeared to be triggered by a northward turning of the
IMF after a sustained interval of weakly southward orientation.
Solar wind data show the onset of a solar sector boundary from
positive to negative orientation at about 1500 UTC. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for some isolated
active periods during the next three days (29 November - 01
December). The influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole are
expected to begin late on 01 December.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 113
Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 28 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 010/010-010/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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