Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. New Regions 706 (S07E69)
and 707 (S15E68) were numbered today. These regions are likely the
return of old Region 698 (S09,L=062) and 693 (S17,L=074)
respectively.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible with the emergence of the two
new regions on the southeast solar disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 107
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 008/012-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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