Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. There was one C-class flare
today, a C3/Sf at 0143 UTC from Region 707 (S14E02). There are
currently three spotted regions on the disk and they are all
essentially unchanged from yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (30 November - 2 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed,
temperature, and total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) continued
to be enhanced after yesterday's solar sector boundary crossing. The
Z-component of the IMF has been fluctuating northwards and
southwards with values typically between -7 nT to +7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (29
November - 2 December) due to persistence from currently enhanced
solar wind and the onset of effects from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 111
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 016/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 016/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
HCDX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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