[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low today.  Region 704 (N12E51)
has shown slight growth in area.  No new regions were numbered
today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active periods were due
to the effects of sustained periods of southward Bz.  Solar wind
speed at ACE showed an increase from 450 km/s to 550 km/s at
approximately 1600 UTC.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 099
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  010/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  008/020-004/010-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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