Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Two C-class events were
observed today. Both of these events were visible in the GOES-12
SXI images approaching the east solar limb. A new region was
numbered today as Region 705 (S04W64).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible with the return of Region 693
(S17,L=074), 698 (S09,L=062), and 696 (N08,L=026). These regions
are due to return to the visible disk between 23-26 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 25-26 November due to the influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 107
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 005/008-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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