[Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and GeophysicalActivity

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels.  Region 700
(N04W93) produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C3
x-ray flare occurring at 18/1456Z.  No sunspots are currently
visible as this region has rotated off the west solar limb.  Regions
703 (N13E46) and 704 (N12E75) were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
active conditions may be seen at higher latitudes on 20 and 21
November due to coronal hole effects.

III.  Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 104
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  002/005-008/012-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/30
Minor storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




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