Re: [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar andGeophysicalActivity

["Teresa Es." <teresaes@cajamar.es>]

PLEASE NO MORE............
UNSUBSCRIBE
UNSUBSCRIBE
P L E A S E ........................














----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@tampabay.rr.com>
To: "ABDX MF e-List" <abdx@abdx.org>; "a PropNET eGroup" 
<PropNET-Online@yahoogroups.com>; "a Propagation Reflector" 
<propagation@contesting.com>; "a HCDX Prop Channel" 
<propagation@hard-core-dx.com>
Sent: Sunday, November 14, 2004 4:20 PM
Subject: [Propagation] Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and 
GeophysicalActivity


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Nov 13 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2004

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Activity was limited to
occasional B-class activity this period. Several new spots emerged
in Region 700 (N05W27), but other than occasional brightness
fluctuations, the region was quiet. No other significant activity or
changes were noted.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated low C-class activity is possible.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated high
latitude active periods. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated,
ranging from 450 to 500 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began on 07/1910Z is nearing an end. The current proton flux is
ranging from 5 to 10 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The
greater than 2 MeV proton event in progress since 07 November is
expected to end today.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 096
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  095/095/100
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  023/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/010-008/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net

Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes: 
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm




---
Outgoing mail is certified virus free by Grisoft AVG 6.0.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.788 / Virus Database: 533 - Release Date: 11/1/2004
_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation



_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation