Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest C-class event of
the period was a C9/Sf flare at 24/2145 UTC from Region 706
(S08E56).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance of an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with one period at 25/0600
UTC of minor storm conditions at high latitudes. Solar wind speed
at ACE has steadily increased during the last 24 hours from around
380 to 550 km/s. This increase is likely due to the recurrent
coronal hole. Prolonged periods of southward Bz components were
responsible for the minor storming conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible for 26 November as the geomagnetic field continues to be
under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 109
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 012/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 010/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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