696 X-flare(s) HIGH 8 87 70 ALPHA DECLINING 26 11
2004
Sunspot group #10696, the source of numerous C, M, X class solar flares,
coronal mass ejections and extreme geomagnetic storming between
November 1-10, 2004 will rotate around the east limb of the Sun on November 26,
2004. The group is in a declining phase and a repeat of "extreme" space weather
is not expected. But an increase solar, space weather and geomagnetic indices
can be expected. Unfortunately LF, MF and some SF frequency propagation
conditions still have not totally recovered from the last round of intense
weather.
73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Propagation eGroup: http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
PropNET Beacon Program: http://www.propnet.org
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
:Issued: 2004 Nov 23 1309 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41123
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Nov 2004, 1242UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Nov 2004 until 25 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Although solar activity is rather quiet, the X-ray background has
risen up to B3 level, due to the appearance of recurring regions NOAA 0693, 0697
and 0698. After the long duration flare of yesterday 22 Nov a series of small B
flares erupted from disappearing region Catania 66 (NOAA 0701). This morning
peaking at 08:52 UT a C2.3 flare erupted from returning region NOAA 0698. We
expect more flaring activity from the East limb. Geomagnetic conditions have
returned to quiet levels, the solar wind speed is 450 km/s at present. We expect
some geomagnetic disturbances due to a small coronal hole from tomorrow noon
onwards.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX : 059
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 106
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011
AK WINGST : ///
ESTIMATED AP : 009
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
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