Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Newly numbered Region 755
(S11E76) generated three C-class events on 17 Apr, two near 1300Z
and one at 2054Z. All other regions remain steady.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 755 has the continued potential to produce C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There's a chance for
isolated periods of active levels as a high-speed stream from a
small, but well defined coronal hole rotates into potentially
geoeffective range from 19 - 20 Apr.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M 10/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 084
Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 17 Apr 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 005/008-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 02/05/05
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
--
No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.308 / Virus Database: 266.9.15 - Release Date: 4/16/2005
_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
|