Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. All of the
regions on the disk were quiescent over the period. The GOES x-ray
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained below the B-level for the
entire interval. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels.
A brief active period occurred in the middle and high latitudes
between 15/0300 and 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 085
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 02/02/02
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
--
No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Anti-Virus.
Version: 7.0.308 / Virus Database: 266.9.11 - Release Date: 4/14/2005
_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation
|