Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a C1 x-ray event at 0253
UTC from Region 751 (S06W90). The remainder of today's activity
consisted of occasional B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (12-14 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
until around 1500 UTC, after which conditions became unsettled to
active. Solar wind data show a sector boundary crossing at about
1440 UTC, followed by a gradual increase in solar wind velocity and
enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. This is consistent with
solar observations which indicate the presence of a favorably
positioned coronal hole just a few degrees behind a solar magnetic
polarity inversion line. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next two days (12-13 April) as
the high speed stream from the coronal hole should continue to drive
activity. There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods during
this time as well. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled
with occasional active periods for the third day (14 April).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 088
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 020/025-020/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
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KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
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KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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