Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
747 (S09E10) underwent growth this period in sunspot area and
magnetic complexity. Region 748 (N09E46) is a single HSX alpha spot
group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A brief period of active conditions were observed at the high
latitudes in conjunction with a sustained southward Bz occurring
between 01/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels throughout the period
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated minor
storm conditions may be possible on 3 and 4 April.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 078
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 015/015-015/025-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/40
Minor storm 10/20/35
Major-severe storm 05/10/20
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
Grid Square EL87WX
Lat & Long 27 58 33.6397 N 82 09 52.4052 W
kn4lf@arrl.net
Contesting Propagation eReflector:
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HC-DX Propagation Channel:
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/index.php?topic=Propagation
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF Amateur & SWL Radio History: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.htm
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